Breeders’ Cup Under the Microscope: How Formidable Are the Juvenile Favorites?

The Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile constantly generates plenty of interest because racing fans are always looking for a potential Kentucky Derby horse, but the race itself can be a tricky puzzle to crack.
Just four favorites have won the Juvenile from 1998-2017 — the last 20 variations of this 1??1/16-mile race — with the average winning chances at nearly 11-1.
There are many factors that play into handicapping Breeders’ Cup World Championships races, along with the 2-year-old races pose additional factors like determining quality of competition coming from bets filled with maiden winners, runners shipping for your first time, seeing a huge crowd for the first time, etc.. Plus, there is less information in the previous performances with which to formulate your opinion.
Bearing that in mind, let us mine to get a few fascinating pieces of advice in the last twenty editions of this Juvenile that could be helpful as you pare down your list of contenders.
To begin with, let us focus on all 20 races to try and determine historic trends that may prove useful. Because this year’s Breeders’ Cup will be held at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., I will then narrow the scope to go in depth on the variants of the Juvenile held under the Twin Spires. Finally, we will take a better look at this year’s entrants to test and identify a few runners which match the profile of a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner.
The race will be televised on NBC Sports live at 6:05 p.m. ET from Churchill Downs as a portion of the”Future Stars Friday” card on Nov. 2. What are a few of the key takeaways from the previous 20 variants of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?
Uncle Mo dominates in 2010. (Eclipse Sportswire)
By 1998-2017, just four favorites (20% ) have prevailed in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Three of those four — Shanghai Bobby (2012), Uncle Mo (2010), and War Pass (2007) — were unbeaten and capped perfect championship campaigns at the Juvenile.
Eight winners struck at high-income chances (10-1) or higher, most lately Great Magic at 11.50-1 last year, including four at 26.80-1 or greater: Vale of York (30.60-1 in 2009), Wilko (28.3-1 at 2004), Action This Day (26.80-1 in 2003), and Anees (30.3-1 at 1999).
The typical odds for the winner within the 20-year stretch was only a shade under 11-1 (10.835-1) with a median of 6.70-1. The chances include 13-10 for Shanghai Bobby in 2012 to 30.6-1 for Vale of York in 2009.
All but one of those previous 20 winners of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were bred in Kentucky. Irish-bred Vale of York, who in 2009 won on the synthetic main track at Santa Anita, was the lone exception.
Twelve of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners won their final prep race. In fact, all 20 finished in the top three and 18 of 20 won or completed within three lengths of the winner in their last pre-Breeders’ Cup start. None lost by more than five lengths.
Ten of the 12 who won their final prep did so by open spans (one length or more).
Seven of the 12 last-out winners capped unbeaten seasons at the Juvenile.
Eight of the last 20 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners were Grade 1 winners entering the World Championships and 10 were graded stakes winners. Only two horses were not stakes winners or rated stakes-placed: Action This Day for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella and New Year’s Day for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert equally won the Juvenile off maiden victories.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners entered the race with a combined 46 wins from 76 begins from 1998-2017 for a 60.5% hit rate.
Eighteen of the 20 created their final start with six months of rest less and 16 of those 20 came into the race on five weeks of rest or less. New Year’s Day won the Juvenile in his third start after winning a maiden special weight race at Del Mar fourteen days prior to the Breeders’ Cup.
Twelve of the 20 Juvenile winners had expertise in a race moving around two turns. Three others finished their final preparation in Europe and four came out of this one-turn-mile Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park.
The Juvenile historically has been a really fair race for all running fashions since its beginning, and the past 20 years are no exception. Seven winners profiled as pace or press-the-pace type runners, six rebounds as stalkers, four were stalkers/closer, and three profiled as committed closers.
Three horses have generated from begin to finish and five rallied from eight spans back or even after a half-mile.
Four winners headed after the initial half-mile in the Juvenile from 1998-2017 and 13 of 20 were better.
The typical winner was sixth/fifth after first quarter-mile and 3.67 lengths back, improving to 3.64 spans back after the initial half-mile. The median position has been fourth/third in the first two points of telephone, two lengths back after the first quarter-mile and 2 1/4 lengths back after a half-mile.
Twelve of the 20 winners led in stretch and 16 were better or third.
Macho Uno’s success by a nose 2000 has been the smallest margin of victory while Street Sense’s 10-length romp in 2006 has been the largest margin.
Six editions of the Juvenile were determined by a neck or less, while on the other side of this coin five variations were won by 4 1/4 lengths or longer.
The average margin of victory has been 2.213 (only under 2 1/4 spans ). The median margin of victory is 1 1/4 lengths.
The average Equibase Speed Figure for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner is 108.9 using a median of 108.5.
Shanghai Bobby earned an 86 Equibase Speed Figure for winning the 2012 Juvenile, which had been the slowest from the 20-year stretch, while War Pass (2007) and Uncle Mo (2010) possibly gained a 123, the highest figure.