Terence Crawford and Jose Benavidez Jr. will face off tonight in Omaha, Nebraska.

Crawford’s WBO welterweight name is on the line. According to the boxing odds at YouWager.eu, Terence Crawford is a prohibitive favorite in -3000 (bet $3,000 to win $100), while Benavidez is a huge underdog at +1000 (bet $100 to win $1000). I am constantly expressing that understanding line value is the way the sharps in sports betting come out on top. The very first rule of betting on sports is do not bet with your heart. It’s easy to get drawn to the backstory of Jose Benavidez and the adversity he’s faced leading up to this fight along with this trash talking and physical altercation at the weigh-in. Unfortunately for Benavidez, these tactics are usually utilized by a fighter who doesn’t feel he’s going to win. Interestingly enough, the two fighters weighed in at 145lbs which begs the question if they are true welterweights. In Crawford’s case, there was not anything left to accomplish at the super lightweight division after unifying each the belts and he’s definitely chasing mega conflicts. With respect to Benavidez, it remains to be seen. Crawford is at another stratosphere when compared with the opposition Benavidez has faced in his professional career.

At the conclusion of the afternoon, Crawford and Benavidez need to fight and the main point is that Crawford is going to conquer Benavidez. It is just a matter as to how.

Here are my four best bets.

FOUR BEST BETS:

1.) Terence Crawford by KO, TKO or DQ -200 (bet $200 to win $100). -200 is usually my threshold in regards to taking a favorite. While Benavidez gets got the amateur pedigree and is undefeated as an expert, if you examine his level of competition, it is less than stellar resistance. His biggest wins are against journeymen and fighters that already have multiple losses in their album. Crawford is an elite fighter. He’ll find a way. For the interest of the bettor’s manual, hopefully before the first half of the ninth round (per my next best bet).

2.) Under 8??1/2 rounds + (wager $100 to win $120). Look, prior to the garbage speaking, I’d have looked in the over as the wise bet, since I felt Benavidez could survive with his height, reach and better than average boxing ability, but in this case, while others state Crawford would like to keep Benavidez about and beat on him, I believe that Crawford is going to look to make a statement and put his foot on the gas pedal earlier than he normally would, especially if Crawford hurts Benavidez early. If Crawford smells blood, he’s going to go in for the kill. Don’t be surprised when the referee steps in to get a TKO and saves Benavidez from additional punishment.